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So you say?

March 28, 2008

Imagine, its a long hard day at the markets.

You took some very modest gains and some numbing hits. You are sitting in your office, with the AC on, full blast. The cold air is almost numbing to the frayed nerves of the day.

The office is closing and one by one you see all your colleagues leaving for home, their girlfriends, and the family.But you sit there, leaning almost flat on that chair of yours, the hum of PC being the sole company.

It had been almost four months that, your bad patch started in the markets. Calls went cold, and money went missing. You just convinced yourself in the initial days, that its a passing phase; After all, you are one of the top analysts in the company, if not the trade. You know the ropes! But months rolled by.And a quarter too (funny! you think)

You are lost in your own thoughts, when you catch something moving behind you.You get startled and look back to see, a mysterious man standing, and giving a knowing smile. It kicks your instincts, and as if on cue, he reads you. He says,

“Its okay… dont get alarmed! Often many people run away before even they here me. Here is my card…” and he hands you his business card.

You take that, and get startled on reading it.

“Aww…its okay! dont panic. I am not here to take your soul. And yeah I am the real Lucifer, in case you take that as a joke”
“Look, I am here to help you, and yeah no biblical foolery this time. I wont take your soul. These days the souls are really cheap. Rather,I would like to have some material compensation, lets say, some financial ones”

You are puzzled, half confused and fully puzzled. But you start thinking!

“Look, I will take you back to July 10,2006, Mumbai. Yeah, the serial train blasts are going to happen the next evening. So if I tell you this, what would you do? And yeah remember no souls to exchange.”

You are listening and you are listening hard. Your brain is spinning , and you are thinking of the possibilities. God is it really possible? Serial train blasts, in the peak timings of Mumbai. A huge chance for the dormant right wing opposition to swing into action. Confusion will ensue in the coming days. Riots! yes communal clashes! God! you scream, “Sell!!!” And you are magically transported to July11, 2006, the market hours. Nobody knows the blasts are going to happen that evening. You frantically sell July2006 Futures. “Ohkay… ohkay… more I want… I want more. Okay the riots are going to be serious. So will last at least another month. Sell, sell, sell August 2006 Futures too… yeah! come on!” The next day, the market saw a massive gap up. A 2.8% rise. But you still hold on! In the next 30 days to follow the market 21% rise. The market scales new highs and in fact breaks old resistances.

You are astonished, and depressed.

Okay, you lost a lot of money. And you are sulking.

But the devil skitters and tells you, “Happens you see… a successful trader is made up of hits and gains. Now want to try once more? I assure you this is solid information. And it can make you riches, boy!”

You shake away the stupor of the loss, and once again think, second time will be better. And before you nod, the devil lets out a smile from the corner of his mouth, and leans close to you. The smell of ammonia reeking through his breath.

“April 13,2006 then…”

And voila, April 13,2006 it is, and the devil says, ” In around half an hour, Bush is going to threaten Iran with a war, and if it needs then nuclear war be it then. And yeah, you can hold your position as less as a day or as long as you wish.”

You get stunned. Nobody knows it and you and only you know about it. Your mind is spinning. Possibilities, permutations, combinations endless…Surely, a war is too big a news to actually avoid it.

Iraq war is on, oil is scarce and at an all time high, inflation is spiraling. And possible talks of Indo-Iran pipeline is in vogue. Afghanistan is already a thorn and Iraq is proving to be a infested nest. War means liquidity crunch, war on Iran means oil scarcity and liquidity crunch. Double whammy, rising inflation, liquidity crunch again, means no money to buy, means stumbling stocks and you almost yelled, “Sell!!!”

At around 8.30 am (IST) US threatens Iran with a preemptive nuclear strike and threatens it as a rogue state.

Sensex opens with a gap down and you are actually smiling. You short sell the April Futures.Options are taken to rake in money. And you are dreaming of that vacation in Carribean. The markets closed 20 points down. You are expecting some real good downside now. Its the next day, well positive gap up. Then the next and then the next and then the next…

Well, ironically it goes back to its original levels just to test the support and shot up. In fact it registered new highs. Period. Almost, except that, it marks a new low in your day.

The Iran Threat Now, I am just going to be wise and leave you with your own thoughts, but do you really think, we know what moves the market?

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