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The 20/20 Vision

June 25, 2008

Hindsight is often 20/20

It had been quite some time that, I sat down on this armchair throwing my wisdoms at unsuspecting crowd. So Masses! brace up, thy will not be spared from my ‘wiser-than-thou’ remarks on Indian business, economy, techno-business and when nothing else, about my latest conquests with the opposite sex. Since the last post, quite a lot has happened.

For one, I turned 23 🙂 [And yes, did I say, I am accepting those iPhones and Wiis thrown my way].
I am running low on finances [after my greedy friends took me for a birthday party] and I have stopped looking at my stock portfolio [can’t really give myself heart attacks everyday, can I ? ]

And with RBI increasing the repo rate, it had been some pain on this side. Think about it: SMEs are caught between the devil and the deep sea [read as: rising input costs and falling consumer purchasing power = LOWER PROFITS], Realty, Auto and Manufacturing has taken quite a hit. And what else, those people who have borrowed from banks have to rework their EMIs… tchk tchk tchk…too bad. And what else, my daily quota of Egg Puff is costing me more 😦 !

But in all this chaos and market bloodbath, I am seeing some good opportunities.These are the times, which brings ordinary people to become Marc Fabers and Warren Buffets. Consider this, what made the investors chase stocks, when Sensex was at 20K?

Bolo Munna Bolo” [speak, sonny, speak]
“Sirji, Greed!”
“Bahut Achche,to ab bolo Munna, when the stocks are trading at 1/4 their price, why nobody is looking out for them?
[The boy thinks for some time]
*Ting!!!* [the bulb glows]
“Sirji, Fear”
“Bahut Acche Munna”

So whats the moral? Nothing. The story didnt end yet!

So, what the masses think and believe, is the common knowledge. If you do opposite to what the crowd does and says, and sprinkle it with some common sense, then you should be doing something which the crowd doesnt do.

REAP PROFITS!

Larsen and Toubro, at its peak was trading at 4000+, today it is trading at 2010 levels. Yet people are bearish on it. Unitech touched 600 levels at one time, today it is wallowing at the levels of 180 something. GMR Infrastructure is going to debt fund an acquisition in US market, which will put some pressure on its stock in short term. But a stock like this, is still scaring away people? Why?

I have ne question for all those people sitting in air conditioned media studios, talking about bottom fishing and pressure selling and such fantastic stuff. Can you really assure that, when the bottom comes, you will be given enough time to actually do some buying? If you really ask me, I don’t see, such a stage coming at all. The moment, FIIs feel, Indian markets have become sufficiently cheap, they are going to enter in droves and mind it! 😉 [remember SRK?] you are not going to get a moment to take breath before it shoots up!

Secondly, there is no denying that system is undera huge pressure. Both external as well as internal. Natural as well as man made. Speculative as well as tangible. And fiscal and material. The coming times are going to be a bit of a tough time. So in these times, the best way to have money is to invest in places which will generate money.

And to do this, those assets have to be eyed which either become indispensable in the next half a decade or become huge to be shaken out or cater to India’s pains and needs. Infrastructure, Health Care Services[not Pharma], Power are some of the sectors. And they are trading dirt cheap.So, I would say, make a plan of how much to invest extra, make some lists of assets to invest in and then stealthily keep hunting.

[On a sidenote, although I am excited about the tech sector, but often find a lull in it. What do we have? Just a couple of software  outsourcing houses listed on BSE and NSE? Where are all those hi-tech software and hardware companies dealing with actual tangible products. Where are all those consumer electronic companies raking in mullahs in a nation perenially hungry on gadgets?]

Often, the unsuspecting crowds become so consummed by their fears that they refuse to rationalise. I see, some bouncebacks after August and some relief in inflation numbers next year. But it will take some time, for companies to fully absorb the high input costs and move on, and thus I am still betting on a good rally in the later part of the year. If you are feeling chickenish, then EXIT, but if you are here for long term growths and its okay for you ignore temporary glitches in the system and make the home run, then by all means stay in it. It may look improbable, even a bit amusing and comical at these times, when markets are falling like nine pins and rally is only of the red tone, but again the doubt of the Asian economies being a lodestone and not a topaz should not arise.

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6 Comments leave one →
  1. Rohan permalink
    June 26, 2008 12:15 am

    u r fucking gud writer. from where u get those similies and metaphor and wat not(i dont even know wat they r called)..gud buddy.

  2. Soham Das permalink*
    June 26, 2008 2:41 am

    😉
    Thank You Thank You!
    Rohan, somebody said, all you need for being a good writer is a pen in hand and a dysfunctional family.

    Dare, I may add, a non performing stock portfolio does wonders 🙂

  3. June 26, 2008 8:19 am

    Hey Soham…

    belated birthday wishes..:)

    i was following L & T for sometime and saw the downfall…in today’s scenario, i don’t think it will again see that magical ‘4000’ mark…but, this is India and it might happen!!

  4. Soham Das permalink*
    June 26, 2008 8:36 am

    Thanks…

    But why not? [Okay Disclosure: I dont have any stocks of it, it was too costly].
    I mean look at it, its there in possibly everything which we need. If N-deal gets through, LNT is going to be a huge gainer, with the country power requirements growing, more plants are required, LNT is even there. And what else, with LNT operating in a space with few competitors, is only going to make it an easier victory for LNT.

  5. Naveen permalink
    July 28, 2008 7:59 pm

    I am impressed by ur writing skills.
    – Nav, Chicago USA

  6. Soham Das permalink*
    July 28, 2008 10:21 pm

    Hi Naveen, thanks for the compliments… 🙂

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