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Valley in the Quake: Some drumbeatings!

November 30, 2008

I am a trader.
My first lesson in trading is: accept going wrong.
My second lesson: lessen your ego.

But this is one of those times, when analysts are outdoing each other in making the direst of predictions and the gloomiest of opinions. But it feels good, that a few of my foresights went right. And dead on they were.

Does this make a hotshot predictor?
Nothing could be further away from truth.
Does this help my trading?
Are you kidding,me?

But going for an ego trip feels good, albeit in such bad times it doesnt do any common good.

Back in April the 4th, I wrote this piece. Some of the important paragraphs quoted were:

EXCERPTS FROM THE POST “QUAKE,VALLEY AND THE NERDS”, DATED APRIL 4th 2008

My extrapolation: Wall Street is getting impatient, frenetic and even panicky. And while this panic was present for quite some time, but off late this has started to take on monstrous dimensions.
Now, if I am to assume right, then this panic is only bound to grow and not wither away with the coming days. In short, the tremors have just arrived, baby.The quake is yet to come. Now if they keep getting panicky like this, then can they call on personal loans and credit cards?…

…only one thing is getting clear to me. E-commerce. The very backbone of internet: E-commerce. If the personal credit system comes under attack then I am sure, a huge implosion of sorts will take place, which indeed will leave a huge body count. Present Web2.0 lives and thrives on e-commerce which breathes on due to liquidity in the market, personal credit cards and personal loans

So what are its effects?

  • Google who holds around 69% market share in Adsense and online revenue system will suffer due to credit crisis.
  • Already VC money have started getting costly and the credit pipeline has by and large dried up. It is being estimated by Trip Chowdhury of Global Equity Research that, by and large in six months, many of the  VC firms will run out of money. In that case, future startup activity will receive a huge jolt.
  • And a large number of dot com startups will wrap up due to the ongoing stag-deflation{a recession+a deflation+stagnation} credit crisis.
  • Because a lot of startups will wrap up, the money gizzling ones, which in a tour of ego bought their network infrastructure and stuff, will trash the hardware giving rise to a glut of it. Incidentally that will hamper your hardware big wigs like Dell, and Intel and HP.
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One Comment leave one →
  1. Soham Das permalink*
    November 30, 2008 12:06 am

    Normally, I hold opinion analysts at a very low pecking order of my attention list, but this is one of those times, I degraded myself.

    If you too want to degrade yourself, let me give you a trade secret:
    Make plenty of them and make extreme ones.

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