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Decisions: 2008-The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

January 1, 2009

Thanks to pagedooley

2008 had been a watershed year. It has been punctuated with enough heartburns, enough frayed nerves, enough emotional entanglement to call its end a good riddance. I am normally not this relieved, when a bad time like this ends, but for once it feels good to be on the wrong side of personal and moral guidelines.

The Good

  • My decision to start this blog: Jump Up. Honestly, I feel good to be able to talk to you about ideas and thoughts, investment, technical or otherwise and bring to you investment opportunities before the crowd wakes upto it.
  • The call on Satyam to go short, at least 6 months back in the back of the UPAID-SATYAM case. In June of 2008 itself, I pronounced Satyam to be a stay away company. It feels good to be validated after an entire 6 months but with the intensity increased many times over.
  • The decision to go long on a select few Indian stocks, for instance like YES BANK is paying off my family well enough.
  • Staying off, the financial markets in January marked a huge advantage for me.
  • In June 2008, I wrote in Seeking Alpha talking about a complete exit from Indian stocks. It was based on extremely simple technical analysis, yet it was marked on point.
  • In April 2008, I went long on Brazilian economy. Exactly a week later, one of the major credit rating agency upgraded the Brazilian economy from hold to buy.
  • My forecasting in May 2008 about the quake in the Silicon Valley.

The Bad

  • My decision to enter Indian markets in April 2008, was an extremely bad decision. A decision based on a delusion that fundamental analysis was easy. And I paid it with cash and kind.
  • My decision to not exit completely in June 2008, with the indices breaching 200 DMA.

The Ugly

  • My decision to back ICICI Bank in April 2008. Being in a first bear market of its own kind, I couldn’t read the market breadth too well.
  • My decision to back MoserBaer and other technology stocks without proper analysis of their balance sheet and price to book value considerations. Lesson: I don’t know a shit about fundamental analysis 🙂
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