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Till Now

May 30, 2009
  • mid- March: Went long in key companies in in leveraged portfolio[futures] and unleveraged ones. The system picked up companies to go long.
  • end-March: The rally starts and one of my short positions in leveraged futures had to be exited with a minor profit, I reverse my positions in the last days of March to go long in the same, once the system throws up a buy signal.
  • April: As the NIFTY keeps on rising, my target is around 3800, but seeing the steepness and nurturing a pessimism, I downgrade to 200DMA-3411. I start sounding bearish calls, waiting for the market to retrace and bounce off, but the consolidation tests, the bears,bulls as well as the retail. I reduce my risk exposure in new longs and even contemplate a short position in TITAN. Change my mind and go long in LUPIN.
  • end-April: I again enter a period of drawdown, a testing drawdown,partly because of my own impulsive reactive trading. I put an end to such trading and promise myself- no more.
  • beginning – May: The market just broke off from the consolidation of 3350-3510 with a massive gap up to 3600 levels, LUPIN is lacklustre. Unleveraged portfolio shows handsome returns. I publicly change my view from bearish to bullish over a post of mine over here.
  • mid-May:The week before the elections were supposed to be announced, we traders were trading long, with LUPIN still as a positional futures long and NIFTY in choppy, yet long position. Two days before the election results were supposed to be announced, taking long straddles were being contemplated. CE3800,PE3500, NIFTY was trading at 3620ish.But on Friday, a day before the election results, during noon, the price action as well as the consolidated NIFTY option chain saw a massive 3300PE building. The action: I built up my long positions,bought CE3800 and kept LUPIN intact. Unleveraged cash portfolio carried naked longs with no hedges.
  • The Weekend of Big Gap: Although being a right centrist the party which I supported lost, but some cosmetic positives came out, LEFT stayed out, unanimous majority etc etc etc. Markets responded with a huge gap up, almost an UC. A 4% move up. My calls paid off, LUPIN didnt really swing that well,a ‘mere’ 6%. And partly I was disappointed.
  • end-May: NIFTY has shown almost 58%  appreciation since mid-endish March. The unleveraged portfolio not surprisingly continued to return handsomely but has not beaten the markets. But I am sure, once the market pauses,[not necessarily retrace], the portfolios will outperform the markets. The portfolios are showing, around 35% and 54% returns. The leveraged portfolio has beaten the market fair and square even accounting the end-April drawdown. But then thats leverage for ya’.
  • The systems: During mid May, I have developed and brought in two extra systems, which makes the total number of systems employed as 3. The tentative names right now are: SYSTEM MR[CodeName: Hector], SYSTEM FLOW*[ CodeName: SAINT], SYSTEM POSITIONAL[CodeName:RUDRA]. HECTOR is based on 10-minutely time frame and is an intraday mean reversion system. SAINT is an hourly based trend following system on NIFTY futures and RUDRA is a positional trend following system often with a timeframe stretching into weeks.

* This system was not developed by me, but certainly tweaked and optimised.

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. Saif permalink
    May 30, 2009 11:42 pm

    hi soham….i saw an interesting mention about a parabolic pattern from Renu’s blog…i found it hard to digest whether we can really touch the 17k mark on sensex (which would coincide with 61.8 retracement of entire fall from 21k to7.8k)…but as days goe by it indeed looks more probable that we make a final spurt towards that mark..(4800 on nifty)..the price action in 2 sessions also seems to point that way…

    what is your analysis…i know its hard to catch the top just as bottom…would be interesting to hear your views though…i think even the GM bankruptcy coming on mon wouldnt be much of a spoiler ..its been circulated in a way which appears very positive for this optimism driven rally..

  2. May 30, 2009 11:53 pm

    Renu’s blog??? 🙂 How many do you follow, brother? 😉

    Three things:
    a. I have stopped predicting long time back :D, realised wisely NIFTY/SENSEX doesnt give a droplet of shit, to what I think. As I have always said, “Follow the Price, the rest is all appendix”.
    b. Fib grid, EW,Gann Waves etc are all fine, but with all due respect, I am not much fan of prediction based tools.
    c. GM bankruptcy or not, don’t forget news based trading doesnt work 😉 The masses love to do it, agar jeet gaye to puppi, nahin to jhappi- remember? The same thing, if they win, huge ego boost, if they lose, it was rigged by FIIs.

    Now having said all that, lets see, if its able to breach 4500 or not. If yes it can, then 4700ish. And yes, dont get swayed by irrational ebullience of the mkts.

    Disclosure: I am still long[price action, remember?]

    P.S: “Markets can stay irrational far longer, than I can stay solvent”-ANONYMOUS

  3. Saif permalink
    May 31, 2009 12:16 am

    i follow around 4-5 blogs ilango sunil deepak are few of them…..i agree its no use predicting but being trader a bias is needed in some direction…indeed price action is supreme and the only true indicator…this wld also be a 13th week of continuous rise if the index makes it…that wld also bring some fib levels to get completed….but behind all this the broader market still looks weak to me…and is cause for concern if this will collapse….lets see how it turns out

    • May 31, 2009 12:21 am

      Lets see. I will be soon updating the number of stocks trading above 20,50,100 day EMA. Lets see, if we can detect any weakness in the internals of the market. Since they are market generated information, it will be nice to see the underbellies of this rally.

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